Statistics Consortium Lecture
co-Sponsored by JPSM and
MPRC
SPEAKER: Professor Bruce Spencer
Statistics Department & Faculty Fellow, Institute for Policy
Research, Northwestern University
TITLE: Statistical Prediction of Demographic
Forecast Accuracy
TIME AND PLACE:
Friday, April 27, 2007, 3:15pm
Room 2205, Lefrak Hall
ABSTRACT: Anticipation of future population change affects public policy deliberations on (i) investment for health care and pensions, (ii) effects of immigration policy on the economy, (iii) future competitiveness of the U.S. economy, to name just three. In this talk, we review some statistical approaches used to predict the accuracy of demographic forecasts and functional forecasts underlying the policy discussions. A functional population forecast is one that is a function of the population vector as well as other components, for example a forecast of the future balance of a pension fund. No background in demography will be assumed, and the necessary demographic concepts will be introduced from the statistical point of view. The talk is based on material in Statistical Demography and Forecasting by J. M. Alho and B. D. Spencer (2005, Springer) and reflects joint work by the authors.
Following Professor Spencer's talk, there will be two 25-minute
Discussions, by Dr. Peter Johnson of the International Programs Center
of the Census Bureau and Dr. Jeffrey Passel of the Pew Hispanic
Center. Following the formal and floor discussion, there will be a
reception including refreshments.
Bruce Spencer is a Professor in the Statistics Department
at Northwestern University, and is also a Faculty Fellow
at the Institute for Policy Research there. He is a 1979
Yale Ph.D. and has been at Northwestern since 1980.
Professor Spencer has been chair of Northwestern's
Statistics Department, director of the Methodology
Research Center of the National Opinion Research Center
(NORC) at the University of Chicago from 1985 to 1992 and
was Senior Research Statistician there from 1992 to 1994.
He has participated on numerous major review Panels for
the National Academy of Sciences and the US government
to review the national Statistical agencies. He received
the Palmer O. Johnson Memorial Award from the American
Educational Research Association in 1983 and is an
elected Fellow of the American Statistical Association.
His methodological research includes major contributions
on the accuracy of population estimates and forecasts,
education statistics, and the implication of data error
on public programs.
Peter D. Johnson is, since 1998, Special Assistant at the
International Programs Center (IPC) in the Population
Division of the U.S. Census Bureau. From 1986-98 he was
Chief of the Information Resources Branch at IPC. He is a
1978 PhD in Demography from Univ. of Pennsylvania. He is
a frequent lecturer for the Census Bureau on international
demography. His research interests include Mortality analysis,
African demography, computer applications in demography, and age
misreporting.
Jeffrey Passell is Senior Research Associate at the Pew Hispanic
Center. He is a nationally known expert on immigration to the United
States and the demography of racial and ethnic groups, formerly a
principal research associate at the Urban Institute's Labor, Human
Services and Population Center. Passel has authored numerous studies
on immigrant populations in America, focusing on undocumented
immigration among other topics.